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Petapixel chat on the SL3s and L mount’s future
- Thread starter pdk42
- Start date
Markuswelder
Well-Known Member
Personally, I'm not really concerned about L mounts future. My S5 is more camera than I'll ever need, and there are currently more native lenses available than I'll ever need also. I think it's a bit like m4/3, whose death has been expected/predicted for as long as I can ever remember. Yet it's still just quietly ticking along, still making enough money that Panasonic hasn't killed it off. And they would have, no mistaking that, had it been costing them, looking at the various model lines that have disappeared over time. Some even returning when they thought the timing might be right again.
It's a bit of a fool's errand I think, constantly looking around, worrying about who has the "best" cameras. Are you going to jump ship, just because the Jones's next door have a bigger swimming pool? At the moment, all the latest camera's seem to be sacrificing image quality for speed, not sure if that's the best path to be going down at this point in time.
It's a bit of a fool's errand I think, constantly looking around, worrying about who has the "best" cameras. Are you going to jump ship, just because the Jones's next door have a bigger swimming pool? At the moment, all the latest camera's seem to be sacrificing image quality for speed, not sure if that's the best path to be going down at this point in time.
No, but this is just us, the current customers. We will not switch that easy, if we did our homework before we bought into the LMount.
But for the brand new customers are important. First time MLU buyers, Smartphone owners, the next generation behind us.
Sales to new people to be able to sell more lenses and more bodies to survive when we, the old costumers, are all dead already.
Do not get me wrong. I think there is still potential for many improvements/new features, which even we would appreciate. But I disagree with the PetaPixel statement that
a) the most expensive models are the most needed for a brand
b) if Panasonic is not able to "duplicate" a Z8, LMount will die.
Especially b) sounds for me like kindergarden talk of someone who wants to have a specific model/feature combination and thinks everyone needs this AND is willing to pay the price for it.
If Lumix would have as many millions old costumers from the DSLR time, then the story would be different. 1% of these old 10/20/100 million Nikon users used to have a D850 and these loyal people will buy a Z8. They have the money, they have the need. R&D costs for the high end model will be covered by these 1%.
But Lumix does not have these millions old costumers, so the math is very different. My guess is that among the old Lumix costumers, percentage wise, there are not that many who are willing to pay 5k+ for a body than among Nikonians.
The reason why it takes so long for a replacement of an S1R and S1 is that sales have not been as high as expected compared to the S5/S5ii. Nobody knows the reason for sure.
It could be the price, the old costumer segment, the size/weight, the AF, wrong marketing etc. or a combination of these criterias. I think it is reasonable from Panasonic to be cautious with the next high end iteration.
They need to figure out what would sell more items of a S1Rii. Technology has to be advanced enough to make a meaningful improvement. Nobody buys a S1Rii just because the colour is different. Lumix' target group is not Leica's target group.
This is not as easy as we might think and without a high market share, the wrong experiment is more dangerous for Lumix than for other brands. You can not afford to test blindly many different models on the market as Sony did it.
Panasonic is big enough to have a very long breath. But even big companies like Panasonic want to make money asap with new models. There are similarities to Kyocera/Contax, when they faced similar problems. Both failed on the marketing side IMHO.
It is not enough to make good products, you have to tell the world also about it. Show it to them. Talk with costumers. Not just youtube reviews
pdk42
Moderator
According to Map Camera in Japan, this is their list of top 10 best selling cameras:
Filtering out just FF models, we get this (with current Wex UK price added):
So, five of the seven top-selling FF cameras are all mid-range models, at a similar price to the S5ii. The remaining two are range-topping - the Canon R5ii and the Nikon Z8. Both clearly out-sold any Panasonic FF camera.
Does the Sony A7IV or Canon R6ii or Nikon Z6iii do more than the S5ii in ways that matter for 99% of the buyers? Almost certainly not. So why isn't the S5ii in the top 10 list? In fact, looking at other retailers' top-selling lists, it looks like the S5ii is not even in the top 20.
I think that is a really interesting question and I bet it's one that really focusses the mind at Panasonic. Some on this thread are saying that Panasonic is playing a different game, focussing on more profitable models at lower volumes. But look at how Panasonic is always doing deep, deep discounts. Just after Christmas, the S5ii hit £1099 in the UK. That's a whopping 44% discount off the current Wex retail price. This discounting strategy tells me that Panasonic are not taking a high profit, low volume approach. They discount like this to get volume and they won't discount if they don't need to. Profitability is derived from unit margin x volume. If the volume isn't there, the profit won't be either. Panasonic isn't Leica. Their R&D and production costs will still be significant so they need the volume.
I think the reason for the low sales volume is simple to see, and it's all about market perception. The vast majority of reviewers and influencers are always saying that Sony, Canon, & Nikon are better systems. They say that because these manufacturers have a competitive set of cameras across the range and their product roadmaps are more predictable than Panasonic's. Panasonic have released nothing in the upper tier since 2019 and they have provided virtually zero information on their intention to even remain in this higher tier. And this higher tier is important as a platform to introduce leading-edge capabilities. So, It's not surprising at all that the reviewers take the safer bet and recommend Sony/Canon/Nikon, especially when there are some basics that Panasonic still aren't competitive with - like CAF, or a higher Mp camera that you can buy.
Now I know I'm definitely acting like an armchair camera company executive now, but Panasonic really need to wake up and show the market what their plan is. There's doubt because:
- Since the launch of the S1 and S1R in 2019 there have been no new models or positioning statements about building high-spec L-mount models
- Those early models are now obsolete/outdated. In fact, Panasonic effectively gave up with all the S1 models (S1, S1R, and S1H) several years ago yet there is no new model to replace them
- They stuck to DfD for too long and then once PDAF found its way into the S5ii, the pace of rolling it out to other models is slow (it's now two years since the S5ii arrived and apart from the S9 there is no other Panasonic FF camera with PDAF)
- Although PDAF brought a step up in AF performance, it wasn't matching the best available when it arrived in the S5ii and to date there has not been any advancement to its capabilities
- The S1ii (or whatever it's called) has been anticipated for a long time, but it's still mañana
- All the above has allowed Canon and Nikon to leapfrog them, and for Sony to get further ahead. What does this say for their commitment to the market?
I absolutely love my Panasonic cameras and I'm a big advocate for the brand, but they need to sort this out in my view. If they don't have good answers to all the above then people like Chris Nichols and Jordan Drake will continue to poke holes in their products and they will only shrink in market share until the point comes when they give up. I don't want that to happen!!
- Fujifilm X100VI
- Fujifilm X-T50
- Sony A7C II
- Nikon Zf
- Fujifilm X-T5
- Nikon Z6 III
- Sony A7 IV
- Canon R6 II
- Canon R5 II
- Nikon Z8
Filtering out just FF models, we get this (with current Wex UK price added):
- Sony A7C II - £1999
- Nikon Zf - £1699
- Nikon Z6 III - £2099
- Sony A7 IV - £1899
- Canon R6 II - £1999
- Canon R5 II - £4499
- Nikon Z8 - £2999
So, five of the seven top-selling FF cameras are all mid-range models, at a similar price to the S5ii. The remaining two are range-topping - the Canon R5ii and the Nikon Z8. Both clearly out-sold any Panasonic FF camera.
Does the Sony A7IV or Canon R6ii or Nikon Z6iii do more than the S5ii in ways that matter for 99% of the buyers? Almost certainly not. So why isn't the S5ii in the top 10 list? In fact, looking at other retailers' top-selling lists, it looks like the S5ii is not even in the top 20.
I think that is a really interesting question and I bet it's one that really focusses the mind at Panasonic. Some on this thread are saying that Panasonic is playing a different game, focussing on more profitable models at lower volumes. But look at how Panasonic is always doing deep, deep discounts. Just after Christmas, the S5ii hit £1099 in the UK. That's a whopping 44% discount off the current Wex retail price. This discounting strategy tells me that Panasonic are not taking a high profit, low volume approach. They discount like this to get volume and they won't discount if they don't need to. Profitability is derived from unit margin x volume. If the volume isn't there, the profit won't be either. Panasonic isn't Leica. Their R&D and production costs will still be significant so they need the volume.
I think the reason for the low sales volume is simple to see, and it's all about market perception. The vast majority of reviewers and influencers are always saying that Sony, Canon, & Nikon are better systems. They say that because these manufacturers have a competitive set of cameras across the range and their product roadmaps are more predictable than Panasonic's. Panasonic have released nothing in the upper tier since 2019 and they have provided virtually zero information on their intention to even remain in this higher tier. And this higher tier is important as a platform to introduce leading-edge capabilities. So, It's not surprising at all that the reviewers take the safer bet and recommend Sony/Canon/Nikon, especially when there are some basics that Panasonic still aren't competitive with - like CAF, or a higher Mp camera that you can buy.
Now I know I'm definitely acting like an armchair camera company executive now, but Panasonic really need to wake up and show the market what their plan is. There's doubt because:
- Since the launch of the S1 and S1R in 2019 there have been no new models or positioning statements about building high-spec L-mount models
- Those early models are now obsolete/outdated. In fact, Panasonic effectively gave up with all the S1 models (S1, S1R, and S1H) several years ago yet there is no new model to replace them
- They stuck to DfD for too long and then once PDAF found its way into the S5ii, the pace of rolling it out to other models is slow (it's now two years since the S5ii arrived and apart from the S9 there is no other Panasonic FF camera with PDAF)
- Although PDAF brought a step up in AF performance, it wasn't matching the best available when it arrived in the S5ii and to date there has not been any advancement to its capabilities
- The S1ii (or whatever it's called) has been anticipated for a long time, but it's still mañana
- All the above has allowed Canon and Nikon to leapfrog them, and for Sony to get further ahead. What does this say for their commitment to the market?
I absolutely love my Panasonic cameras and I'm a big advocate for the brand, but they need to sort this out in my view. If they don't have good answers to all the above then people like Chris Nichols and Jordan Drake will continue to poke holes in their products and they will only shrink in market share until the point comes when they give up. I don't want that to happen!!
Very good points. IMHO it is bad marketing.
Market perception can only be influenced by smart marketing.
If Panasonic is not willing to show and tell how good their cameras are, why others should be interested to say good things about the system?
To only play with youtube reviewers is playing with the devil. You have no control over the outcome. You play with the fire.
Exactly. Talk to your costumers. Today you have to talk to people instead of talking at people.
Market perception can only be influenced by smart marketing.
If Panasonic is not willing to show and tell how good their cameras are, why others should be interested to say good things about the system?
To only play with youtube reviewers is playing with the devil. You have no control over the outcome. You play with the fire.
Exactly. Talk to your costumers. Today you have to talk to people instead of talking at people.
Back in 2023 Panasonic were the second best selling brand (in terms of numbers sold) in France with 22% of the market for cameras under €2,500.
phototrend.fr (in French)
Google translation to English
Perhaps Panasonic's product managers in other countries need to learn from the success of Mathilde Lécuyer?
Markuswelder
Well-Known Member
I think you're right. Which begs the question, how much do you have to spend on paying off influencers etc, before it costs you more, or less, than smaller market share and discounting? Does it make financial sense? I don't know. But Panasonic has been around for a long long time, they're not stupid, nor have they gone broke. They're happy to dump non profitable products -TV's for example, and point and shoot cameras, but still plug along with various ILC cameras. Such as m4/3 as I mentioned earlier.
I think we've seen a bit of their strategy, by not inviting Gerald undone to the S9 launch. They'd rather let their products sell themselves. Toughbook computers spring to mind. It's not like they haven't been down the heavy advertising road before, who could ever forget their waterproof camera campaigns?
pdk42
Moderator
Merci pour ce lien Alan.
Jonathan-Mac
Well-Known Member
I haven't listened to the podcast yet but I'll get to it.
I agree that Panasonic need to push the boundaries of what they have done so far with cameras but beyond that I think lenses are a limiting factor even though the basics are covered, so this is down to Sigma too. Panasonic has a grand total of one prime in it's Pro line. There are no fast telephoto primes. There's no 50mm macro. There are no compact primes. Many of Panasonics lenses are known to have very variable quality control which shows as a high level of copy variation. All the lenses that exist that are at all innovative are provided by Sigma, who I'm sure are flat-out in designing new ones, but Panasonic are doing very little to expand what they already have and make the L-mount stand out. The various Chinese brands, though they're very welcome to the party, generally only provide the standard lenses at a lower cost, with no innovation.
In summary, there's little to make the L-mount stand out from others. Video capabilities have worked for Panasonic until now but I doubt they're much ahead these days though the S5 II provides better value than other mounts.
So how about some innovation and maybe some better marketing to put some energy into things.
I agree that Panasonic need to push the boundaries of what they have done so far with cameras but beyond that I think lenses are a limiting factor even though the basics are covered, so this is down to Sigma too. Panasonic has a grand total of one prime in it's Pro line. There are no fast telephoto primes. There's no 50mm macro. There are no compact primes. Many of Panasonics lenses are known to have very variable quality control which shows as a high level of copy variation. All the lenses that exist that are at all innovative are provided by Sigma, who I'm sure are flat-out in designing new ones, but Panasonic are doing very little to expand what they already have and make the L-mount stand out. The various Chinese brands, though they're very welcome to the party, generally only provide the standard lenses at a lower cost, with no innovation.
In summary, there's little to make the L-mount stand out from others. Video capabilities have worked for Panasonic until now but I doubt they're much ahead these days though the S5 II provides better value than other mounts.
So how about some innovation and maybe some better marketing to put some energy into things.
I do not think that youtube reviews with famous youtubers is enough to launch a new product line.
We have to bear in mind, that the L-Mount alliance was announced in autums 2018 at a press conference at Photokina, but the first products were available a lot later.
This is different to Nikon and Canon, which delivered a lot earlier their first MLU products.
Youtube is a one-way road only. This is not enough. If Panasonic would have marketed its products differently, I am sure that they would have today a bigger market share.
The experience of the french market mentiones above is the proove.
We have to bear in mind, that the L-Mount alliance was announced in autums 2018 at a press conference at Photokina, but the first products were available a lot later.
This is different to Nikon and Canon, which delivered a lot earlier their first MLU products.
Youtube is a one-way road only. This is not enough. If Panasonic would have marketed its products differently, I am sure that they would have today a bigger market share.
The experience of the french market mentiones above is the proove.
How does Nikon stand out in its lens line up compared to LMount? I do not see any advantage of the Nikon Z lens line.
and a cool and sexy camera without flaws... 
pdk42
Moderator
I think the Z line-up is one of the compelling things about Nikon mirrorless. They have a very comprehensive line up.
I do not really see a meaningful difference. Compare the lens lists.
Except for more choice at FFL 28mm and some special Teles above 300mm, Nikon Z offers the same lenses/ FL as the native lenses of Leica, Sigma and Panasonic.
The only difference is, that the name tag is always Nikon and in LMount you have 3 different names.
There are a few differences in special zoom ranges like Lumix 20-60, 18-40 etc., but this does not matter for 95% of photographers.
Nikon and all other brands did not reinvent the wheel. They do all the same. No matter which brand. They offer lenses which people like to use since 50 years. Small differences because of different priorities here and there will disappear over the time as soon as there is enough design and production capacity available.
For example: Nikon can not introduce a Z9 without enough choice in the telerange. No sport photographer will buy a Z9 without these lenses.
Third party (=non native) lenses are a different story. That depends on what you allow as the patent holder (this is Leica) and the market share to attract other brands to offer their lenses in your lens mount.
Markuswelder
Well-Known Member
The thing that lots of people seem to be missing, is that nearly all the opposition cameras mentioned are basically targeted at sports/wildlife/fast action shooting. Panasonic is not chasing this market. It's a niche within a niche, and they'd be investing a ton of $$$ just to fight over a few crumbs. Look how long it's taken Sony to get where they are, and it's very very different times now than when they first jumped into the full frame arena.
I agree.
So Panasonic's next S1-series camera is likely to be quite a disappointment to everyone clamouring for a LUMIX version of the Z8 / A1-II / R5-II, and it will get trashed in reviews by PetaPixel and DPR who believe that Panasonic must have a horse in every race.
Maybe Panasonic should take advantage of the gap that's opening up between the latest CaNikSony cameras that prioritise speed over IQ and market LUMIX as the brand that doesn't compromise on IQ.
Jan.Wedekind
Member
They tried that with DFD and “no PDAF pixels compromising”.
i am still quite happy with my S1. But I’m worried that they are just missing the boat. It’s still great if a new S1ii is lighter, bit smaller, has PDAF, same amazing EVF… but the same 24MP sensor as 6y ago and same in the S5ii? That would be a tough sell honestly.
Let’s hope they’ll surprise us. They definitely did surprise many with the 25mp m43 sensor.
The new 25MP sensor in the MFT G9ii and GH7 has some downsides. The files are huge. Both cameras have a better dynamic range then the predecessor, but I am not sure whether it is worth it. OM system achieves a similar dynamic range with smaller files.
But it is unlikely that Panasonic uses this technique for their fullframe cameras. The sensor is a lot bigger and you can achieve better results without the extra effort.
At the end of the day, the DR of fullframe sensors is so good today, that it is unlikely that we will see a difference in normal shooting conditions.
I am not sure whether the sensor in the new Lumix FF cameras will be that much different to Nikon, Canon or Sony sensors with similar MP. There is no need for this in my opinion.
We are living in a time, in which image quality is almost identical among all brands. Maybe colour science differs still a little bit, but not that much and in PP you can change it anyway.
Usability of the body, userinface, menu system sharing options are more important nowadays. The LUT feature and transfer speed of the S9 is a good indication for future improvements.
But to be honest, IMHO we end up in a similar patt situation like in the 90ies with analog cameras. All are good. Basically no differences. Only your personal taste for a brand name or a "look" of a camera or "professional image" in the marketing for model xyz decided what system you invested in.
If you feel comfortable with the L-Mount today and the Lunix or Leica or Sigma DNA, you will also like it in the future.
All differences in lens line up, AF speed, MP, body models will disappear over the time. In the past, the industry needed 30-50 years to wipe out the differences, todays we will probably need only 10-15 years for this. Sony had more time because they startes earlier, but all others - including Lumix - are catching up continuously. There is no way around it. In 5 years, the differences will be meaningless among the brands.
The good thing for us is at the same time the bad thing for the brands (and for reviewers). It is a lot tougher to seduce new users into your system, if there are no differences in real world scenarios.
Yes, and this spells trouble for sites like PetaPixel and DPR because they will run out of meaningful content. Everything they do is about gear/specifications and not really about photography itself.
I guess that's what we're already seeing. Amazon got rid of DPR and DPR is a shell of its former self. And there is a concentration on diminishing enhancements in products, and the reviewers are trying to make these things seem more important than they are to have something to talk about.
I've all but given up watching and reading gear reviews for this reason. Reading and watching content about photography is way more meaningful.